This morning I had some data thrust on me. I took it upon myself to process this, and came to some interesting conclusions.

Essentially I wanted to figure out what the "<1%" chance of mythical items actually meant. The data I received is directly from Madao San, so draw your own conclusions from that. The following is the data along with my calculations and final conclusion.

The data.


The calculations.


Conclusions + useful information.

After coming up with a final answer, wow. They weren't kidding when they said less than 1%. Keep in mind this is still a pretty small sample size, and final answers can be recalculated with more data to provide an answer closer to the actual answer. Still, it's pretty cool

Every card you spawn via item boxes has approximately .0011919% chance of being mythical. On average it'll take about 2.4 Million SM coins (buying only mixed boxes) to spawn 1 mythical card.

So the real question is, devs, is this accurate?

Here's for one of my big replies!

This is an absolute rip off of an update if the chances are that low. Wtf is Tacticsoft thinking, adding mythical to item boxes I agree with, but you may as well open gold boxes, and spend all your money!

So Liran nice update but i completely disagree with it!

Its not even 10% not in inventory. So why bother spending SM while you will be getting the same mythicals anyway

Not quite, unless some really, really bizarre bug is in place, that's nowhere close to the percentage. Not going to sit here and lie its 0.9%, but it shouldn't have that many zeroes for sure

It's beneath 1% as advertised, but it shouldn't be THAT far beneath it at all.. Probably a case of extremely bad luck, we'll look into it for sure.



I'd like to note you're disagreeing with Liran adding something extra, for free, in an event. Something that you normally wouldn't get.

Obviously we'll balance everything to be nice, but I think it's safe to also appreciate what is a pretty neat event if you ask me. =)



Obviously our purpose is not to outdo gold boxes by normal boxes for spenders, as gold boxes are pretty cool themselves. But, it's definitely not (supposed to be) this low. Either this was very bad luck or there's something else at play.

Ok, I see your point but I do suggest lowering the price of the boxes, I mean 12 Million SM Is $100 IRL Money. You literally may as well buy gold item boxes

As I mentioned, it's not as low as calculated from this unless there's some freak bug going in (which we're looking into).

That said, it's worth mentioning that we don't really intend to replace gold boxes with normal ones for this event, I mean, that'd be a bit much...



It's worth mentioning even if it would be (and its not/shouldnt be), it'd still be a better deal then buying the boxes over time anyway and not having any chance of myths.


Hopefully, there's so many things we want to do, I dont like to comment on these things too concretely